RB Leipzig
Freiburg
Win Probability
Moneyline
RBL
+146
32.9% win prob
EV -9.5%
Pinnacle
Draw
Draw
+310
26% prob
EV +2.5%
bet365
Moneyline
SCF
+160
41.5% win prob
EV +3.9%
Pinnacle
RB Leipzig travels to face SC Freiburg in a match where the simulation favours the hosts slightly. The model projects a low-scoring affair centred on Freiburg's ability to limit chances: across 50,000 simulations, the most likely outcome appeared in one of every ten runs. When AccuScore has leaned this moderately toward a side in the past, that team won 44% of the time. Leipzig would need to overcome Freiburg's home advantage and convert their limited opportunities into goals to defy the projection.
| Book | RBL | EV | Draw | EV | SCF | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +146 | -9.5% | +289 | -0.2% | +160 | +3.9% |
| bet365 ↗ | +145 | -9.7% | +310 | +2.5% | +140 | -0.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3.5 | +107 | -7.7% | -128 | +2.7% |
| bet365 ↗ | 3.5 | +100 | -9.1% | -125 | +3.2% |
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Bundesliga
AccuScore's simulation makes Freiburg 42% to win, RB Leipzig 33%, with a 26% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Freiburg the more likely winner at 42%, with a 26% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Freiburg a 42% chance of beating RB Leipzig, with 33% for RB Leipzig and 26% for a draw. Freiburg are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How RB Leipzig and Freiburg come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
RB Leipzig have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-L-W, most recent first).
Freiburg have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 20 times since 2016: RB Leipzig 12, Freiburg 4, 4 drawn. The last meeting, on May 16, 2026, finished RB Leipzig 1, Freiburg 4.