Bayer Leverkusen
Borussia Dortmund
Win Probability
Moneyline
B04
+210
28.1% win prob
EV -6.4%
bet365
Draw
Draw
+309
28% prob
EV +6.9%
Pinnacle
Moneyline
BVB
+118
44.1% win prob
EV -1.9%
Pinnacle
Borussia Dortmund hosts Bayer Leverkusen in a Bundesliga clash where the model leans clearly toward the home side. The simulation projects a tight affair centered on low scoring, with a combined goal expectation near 2.6; AccuScore's record on unders shaped this way stands at 52% across nearly 10,000 graded games. Bayer Leverkusen's attack will need to break through, while Borussia Dortmund must convert chances efficiently—the most likely outcome remains a 1–1 draw. For the visitors to upset the projection, they would need to force the kind of offensive dominance that the model assigns them only a 28% chance to achieve.
| Book | B04 | EV | Draw | EV | BVB | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +191 | -9.1% | +309 | +6.9% | +118 | -1.9% |
| bet365 ↗ | +210 | -6.4% | +290 | +4.2% | +100 | -5.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3.5 | +111 | -22.4% | -133 | +14.7% |
| bet365 ↗ | 3.5 | +100 | -23.8% | -125 | +16.4% |
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Bundesliga
AccuScore's simulation makes Borussia Dortmund 44% to win, Bayer Leverkusen 28%, with a 28% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Borussia Dortmund the more likely winner at 44%, with a 28% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Borussia Dortmund a 44% chance of beating Bayer Leverkusen, with 28% for Bayer Leverkusen and 28% for a draw. Borussia Dortmund are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Bayer Leverkusen have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-W, most recent first).
Borussia Dortmund have won 2 of their last 5, drawing 3 (W-D-W-D-D, most recent first).
The teams have met 18 times since 2017: Bayer Leverkusen 5, Borussia Dortmund 10, 3 drawn. The last meeting, on Apr 11, 2026, finished Bayer Leverkusen 1, Borussia Dortmund 0.