Serie A
AC Milan
Cagliari
Win Probability
Moneyline
MIL
-149
56.1% win prob
EV -3.1%
Pinnacle
Draw
Draw
+300
27% prob
EV +4.0%
bet365
Moneyline
CAG
+475
16.9% win prob
EV -1.4%
bet365
When Milan travels to Cagliari in Serie A, the simulation favors the visitors decisively. Across 50,000 simulations, Milan's attacking threat outweighs Cagliari's home advantage, with a most likely outcome of a single goal to nil. The key tension in this matchup is total goals: the model expects under 2.5, though 37 percent of simulations crack that threshold. In games where AccuScore has leaned this strongly toward the away side, that side won 52 percent of 10,698 comparable matchups. For Cagliari to pull off an upset, their attack would need to overcome a visiting defense that the model expects to keep them relatively quiet.
| Book | MIL | EV | Draw | EV | CAG | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | -149 | -3.1% | +296 | +3.5% | +403 | -7.5% |
| bet365 ↗ | -189 | -7.1% | +300 | +4.0% | +475 | -1.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 2.5 | -118 | -14.7% | -101 | +11.4% |
| bet365 ↗ | 2.5 | -149 | -18.0% | +120 | +17.9% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes AC Milan 56% to win, Cagliari 17%, with a 27% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes AC Milan the more likely winner at 56%, with a 27% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Cagliari a 17% chance of beating AC Milan, with 56% for AC Milan and 27% for a draw. Cagliari are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How AC Milan and Cagliari come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
AC Milan have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
Cagliari have won 1 of their last 5 (W-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 16 times since 2017: AC Milan 10, Cagliari 2, 4 drawn. The last meeting, on May 24, 2026, finished Cagliari 2, AC Milan 1.