NCAAB
UTEP
Northern Kentucky
Win Probability
UTEP travels to Northern Kentucky in a matchup the model leans slightly toward the Miners. The simulation projects a tight contest that hinges on three-point shooting: how efficiently each team converts from beyond the arc will likely determine which side reaches the mid-70s. In eight statistically similar games, AccuScore's pick went 5–3, a record that suggests modest confidence in close calls of this type. For the Norse to pull off the upset at home, they would need to force enough turnovers to disrupt UTEP's offensive rhythm and keep pace in a game unlikely to feature high-volume scoring.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | NKU | EV | UTEP | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +124 | +3.0% | -148 | -5.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +130 | +4.4% | -156 | -6.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +125 | +3.2% | -155 | -6.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | +126 | +3.4% | -150 | -6.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +125 | +3.2% | -145 | -5.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 148.5 | -112 | -1.0% | -108 | -3.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 148.5 | -114 | -1.4% | -106 | -3.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 149.5 | -105 | -1.9% | -115 | -2.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | 149 | -110 | -1.7% | -110 | -2.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 148.5 | -110 | -0.6% | -110 | -4.0% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 47.3%
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AccuScore's simulation makes UTEP 53% to beat Northern Kentucky (47%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes UTEP the more likely winner at 53%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Northern Kentucky a 47% chance of beating UTEP, against 53% for UTEP. Northern Kentucky are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
UTEP project to finish 11.7–15.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Northern Kentucky project to finish 16.5–13.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 18% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTEP | 11.7–15.3 | 5% | 8% |
| Northern Kentucky | 16.5–13.5 | 14% | 18% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →