NCAAB
UTSA
San José State
Win Probability
San José State hosts UTSA in a contest where the simulation decisively favors the Spartans. The model projects a low-scoring affair that hinges on perimeter shooting: if UTSA's guards can't generate consistent offense, San José State's defense will control the pace and pull away. AccuScore's record on games shaped this way stands at 7 wins in 8 comparable matchups. For the Roadrunners to steal this one on the road, they'd need a shooting night well above their projection and to force San José State into an uncharacteristically poor offensive performance.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | SJSU | EV | UTSA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -360 | -1.2% | +285 | -4.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -375 | -1.6% | +290 | -4.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -375 | -1.6% | +290 | -4.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | -355 | -1.0% | +278 | -5.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -380 | -1.7% | +290 | -4.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 154.5 | -105 | -6.1% | -115 | +1.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | -4.8% | -110 | +0.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | -4.8% | -110 | +0.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | 153 | -110 | -3.7% | -110 | -0.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | -4.8% | -110 | +0.3% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes San José State 76% to beat UTSA (24%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes San José State the more likely winner at 76%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives San José State a 76% chance of beating UTSA, against 24% for UTSA. San José State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
UTSA project to finish 10.2–19.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
San José State project to finish 12.9–17.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTSA | 10.2–19.8 | 1% | 2% |
| San José State | 12.9–17.1 | 4% | 7% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →