NCAAB
UAB
McNeese
Win Probability
UAB travels to face McNeese in a game where the simulation clearly favours the home side. The Blazers' path to an upset runs through limiting McNeese's scoring, with the model projecting the hosts to exceed 77 points. On games with this win-probability shape, AccuScore's picks have gone 7 for 8 across other matchups. For UAB to pull off the road win, they would need to keep McNeese well below that projection while finding consistent offensive rhythm themselves.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | MCN | EV | UAB | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -170 | +1.2% | +142 | -7.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -178 | +0.4% | +146 | -6.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -180 | +0.2% | +145 | -6.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | -170 | +1.2% | +143 | -6.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -165 | +1.8% | +140 | -7.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 152.5 | -108 | -8.3% | -112 | +3.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 151.5 | -110 | -6.4% | -110 | +1.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 152.5 | -105 | -7.7% | -115 | +3.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | 151 | -110 | -5.0% | -110 | +0.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 151.5 | -105 | -5.4% | -115 | +0.8% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 64.5%
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AccuScore's simulation makes McNeese 65% to beat UAB (36%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes McNeese the more likely winner at 65%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives McNeese a 65% chance of beating UAB, against 36% for UAB. McNeese are at home and favoured on these numbers.
UAB project to finish 16.4–14.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 18% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
McNeese project to finish 19.7–9.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 46% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →