NCAAB
Oakland
Michigan
Win Probability
Oakland travels to Michigan in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the home side. The Wolverines project to win by a considerable margin, with their defence expected to limit Oakland's scoring opportunities well below 70 points. On games shaped statistically like this one, AccuScore's model has gone 8 for 8, a perfect record that underscores how rarely the visiting team competes in such circumstances. For Oakland to pull off the upset, their offence would need to operate at peak efficiency and force Michigan into uncharacteristic shooting struggles—a tall order given the talent disparity the model has identified.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | MICH | EV | OAK | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -9000 | -0.6% | +2500 | -20.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -30000 | -1.0% | +5000 | +8.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -10000 | -0.7% | +3000 | -14.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -20000 | -0.9% | +3000 | -14.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -5500 | -0.3% | +3000 | -14.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 157.5 | -105 | -0.2% | -115 | -4.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 156.5 | -114 | +0.4% | -106 | -5.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 156.5 | -115 | +0.2% | -105 | -4.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | 157.5 | -110 | -1.3% | -110 | -3.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 157.5 | -105 | -0.2% | -115 | -4.2% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Michigan 98% to beat Oakland (2%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Michigan the more likely winner at 98%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Michigan a 98% chance of beating Oakland, against 2% for Oakland. Michigan are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Oakland project to finish 14.1–17.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 18% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Michigan project to finish 23.3–6.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 88% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →