NCAAB
Monmouth
St. John's
Win Probability
St. John's hosts Monmouth in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the home side. The Red Storm's depth should control the pace: with a 68% chance of exceeding 87 points, St. John's projects to dominate a travel-worn visitor. Monmouth will need to manufacture stops at a rate well above their season norm to stay competitive—models shaped like this one have gone 8 for 8 for the favoured side historically. For the Hawks to escape with an upset, their defence would need to hold St. John's well below projection while generating enough efficient possessions to stay within striking distance.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | SJU | EV | MONM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -50000 | -1.3% | +4000 | +7.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -30000 | -1.2% | +5000 | +21.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -10000 | -0.9% | +3300 | -2.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -8412 | -0.8% | +3844 | +5.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 153.5 | -105 | -8.2% | -115 | +3.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 152.5 | -115 | -7.5% | -105 | +3.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 153.5 | -105 | -8.2% | -115 | +3.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | 153 | -110 | -7.8% | -110 | +3.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 153.5 | -105 | -8.2% | -115 | +3.5% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes St. John's 97% to beat Monmouth (3%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes St. John's the more likely winner at 97%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives St. John's a 97% chance of beating Monmouth, against 3% for Monmouth. St. John's are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Monmouth project to finish 16.0–16.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 19% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
St. John's project to finish 21.5–8.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 69% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monmouth | 16.0–16.0 | 12% | 19% |
| St. John's | 21.5–8.5 | 32% | 69% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →