NCAAB
Quinnipiac
Michigan State
Win Probability
Quinnipiac travels to face Michigan State in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the home side. The Spartans project to 87.5 points, with that offensive output proving decisive against a visiting team expected to manage just 62.9. On games shaped like this one—where the favourite holds such a commanding edge—AccuScore's model has gone 8 for 8 across comparable situations. The game turns on whether Quinnipiac can generate enough perimeter scoring to stay competitive; anything short of an upset requires the Bobcats to dramatically exceed their projected output while containing Michigan State's attack.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | MSU | EV | QUIN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -100000 | -1.0% | +5000 | +1.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -10000 | -0.5% | +3300 | -16.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -15719 | -0.7% | +2171 | -27.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 150.5 | -108 | -2.6% | -112 | -1.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 150.5 | -110 | -3.0% | -110 | -1.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 150.5 | -105 | -2.0% | -115 | -2.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | 151 | -110 | -4.3% | -110 | -0.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 150.5 | -110 | -3.0% | -110 | -1.5% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Michigan State 98% to beat Quinnipiac (2%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Michigan State the more likely winner at 98%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Michigan State a 98% chance of beating Quinnipiac, against 2% for Quinnipiac. Michigan State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Quinnipiac project to finish 15.5–14.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 15% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Michigan State project to finish 20.3–11.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 64% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac | 15.5–14.5 | 12% | 15% |
| Michigan State | 20.3–11.7 | 8% | 64% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →