NCAAB
Jackson State
Texas Tech
Win Probability
Jackson State travels to face Texas Tech in a matchup where the simulation strongly favors the home side. The Red Raiders' depth will likely prove decisive, particularly if guards like Tyson Jolly eclipse his 48% projection for three-pointers and control tempo. For Jackson State to pull off an upset, ball security becomes critical—turnovers could accelerate the pace in Texas Tech's favor. AccuScore's model has gone 8 for 8 on games shaped this way, a record built on the home team's ability to impose its style. The Tigers would need sustained three-point shooting and near-flawless execution to stay close.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | TTU | EV | JKST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM ↗ | -10000 | +0.1% | +3300 | -36.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -7804 | +0.2% | +3680 | -34.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 155.5 | -105 | -5.3% | -115 | +0.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 155.5 | -110 | -6.3% | -110 | +1.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 155.5 | -110 | -6.3% | -110 | +1.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | 155.5 | -110 | -6.3% | -110 | +1.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 155.5 | -105 | -5.3% | -115 | +0.7% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Texas Tech 99% to beat Jackson State (1%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Texas Tech the more likely winner at 99%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Texas Tech a 99% chance of beating Jackson State, against 1% for Jackson State. Texas Tech are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Jackson State project to finish 10.7–22.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 5% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Texas Tech project to finish 18.0–11.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 54% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson State | 10.7–22.3 | 5% | 5% |
| Texas Tech | 18.0–11.0 | 9% | 54% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →