NCAAB
Charlotte
Indiana State
Win Probability
Charlotte travels to Indiana State in a matchup where the 49ers hold a slight advantage in the simulation. The game hinges on three-point shooting: if Charlotte's perimeter game flows, they can build separation, but Indiana State's ability to stay close depends on forcing the Sycamores into their outside looks. AccuScore's model has won five of eight similar games over its history. For Indiana State to pull off the upset at home, they would need to control tempo and limit Charlotte's scoring chances in transition.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | INST | EV | CLT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +160 | +7.1% | -192 | -7.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +162 | +7.5% | -196 | -7.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +155 | +6.0% | -190 | -7.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | +162 | +7.5% | -195 | -7.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +165 | +8.2% | -195 | -7.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | -6.9% | -110 | +2.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 152.5 | -114 | -7.6% | -106 | +3.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | -6.9% | -110 | +2.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | -6.9% | -110 | +2.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | -6.9% | -110 | +2.3% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 43.9%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Charlotte 56% to beat Indiana State (44%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Charlotte the more likely winner at 56%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Indiana State a 44% chance of beating Charlotte, against 56% for Charlotte. Indiana State are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Charlotte project to finish 14.4–16.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 10% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Indiana State project to finish 12.7–15.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 12% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte | 14.4–16.6 | 5% | 10% |
| Indiana State | 12.7–15.3 | 5% | 12% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →