NCAAB
Niagara
West Virginia
Win Probability
West Virginia hosts Niagara in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. The Mountains project to dominate on both ends, with the game turning on whether Niagara can generate enough offensive firepower to stay competitive. Across eight statistically similar past games, AccuScore's model has gone 8–0, a perfect record that underscores how predictable these heavily lopsided matchups tend to be. For the visiting Mountaineers to pull off an upset, they would need to shoot well beyond their projected efficiency and force West Virginia into an uncharacteristic shooting night; anything close to the simulated scoring would seal the outcome decisively.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | WVU | EV | NIA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -100000 | -1.0% | +5000 | +3.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -10000 | -0.6% | +3300 | -14.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -9122 | -0.5% | +4218 | -4.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 142.5 | -105 | -13.0% | -115 | +8.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 142.5 | -106 | -13.2% | -114 | +8.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 142.5 | -105 | -13.0% | -115 | +8.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | 142 | -110 | -12.6% | -110 | +8.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 142.5 | -105 | -13.0% | -115 | +8.0% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes West Virginia 98% to beat Niagara (2%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes West Virginia the more likely winner at 98%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives West Virginia a 98% chance of beating Niagara, against 2% for Niagara. West Virginia are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Niagara project to finish 12.0–18.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 4% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
West Virginia project to finish 16.5–13.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 33% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Niagara | 12.0–18.0 | 3% | 4% |
| West Virginia | 16.5–13.5 | 4% | 33% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →