NCAAB
Elon
Columbia
Win Probability
Elon travels to Columbia in a matchup where the model leans clearly toward the home side. The simulation hinges on perimeter shooting: if Columbia's guards can stay efficient from three, the Lions pull away, but Elon's ability to generate open looks will determine whether the visitors can keep pace. Across eight statistically similar games, AccuScore's pick went 7–1. For Elon to upset the projection, their depth scoring would need to exceed expectations and force Columbia into uncomfortable defensive rotations.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | COLU | EV | ELON | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -175 | +0.4% | +145 | -6.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -166 | +1.4% | +138 | -7.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -170 | +0.9% | +140 | -6.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | -165 | +1.5% | +140 | -6.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -170 | +0.9% | +145 | -6.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 153.5 | -112 | -11.9% | -108 | +7.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 153.5 | -105 | -10.7% | -115 | +5.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | -11.5% | -110 | +7.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | -11.5% | -110 | +7.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | -11.5% | -110 | +7.0% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 64.1%
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
AccuScore's simulation makes Columbia 64% to beat Elon (36%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Columbia the more likely winner at 64%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Columbia a 64% chance of beating Elon, against 36% for Elon. Columbia are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Elon project to finish 12.5–17.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Columbia project to finish 14.0–13.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 17% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →