Vermont
Iona
Win Probability
Vermont travels to Iona in a matchup the model leans slightly toward the home side. The simulation projects a low-scoring affair, with both teams in the low 70s, and the game's outcome likely turns on three-point shooting—a area where execution variance matters most at this pace. In similar games run across the model's history, the favored side won five of eight. For Vermont to pull the upset, it would need to control pace and limit Iona's efficiency from beyond the arc.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | IONA | EV | UVM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -115 | +0.6% | -105 | -5.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -110 | +1.6% | -110 | -6.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | -115 | +0.6% | -105 | -5.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -115 | +0.6% | -105 | -5.2% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -124 | -1.1% | -104 | -5.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 145.5 | -110 | -5.0% | -110 | +0.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 145.5 | -115 | -6.0% | -105 | +1.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | 145.5 | -110 | -5.0% | -110 | +0.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 145.5 | -110 | -5.0% | -110 | +0.5% |
| BetRivers ↗ | 147.5 | -112 | -10.1% | -114 | +4.3% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 54.1%
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Iona 54% to beat Vermont (46%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Iona the more likely winner at 54%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Iona a 54% chance of beating Vermont, against 46% for Vermont. Iona are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Vermont project to finish 15.8–14.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 23% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Iona project to finish 15.5–16.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 11% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →