Dartmouth
Marist
Win Probability
Dartmouth travels to face Marist in a matchup where the host holds a decisive advantage. The simulation projects a low-scoring contest that hinges on perimeter shooting: both offenses will need to stay efficient to keep pace. On games shaped similarly to this one across AccuScore's model history, the favored side has won 7 of 8. For Dartmouth to pull the upset, the visiting team would need to limit Marist's scoring and convert at a rate the projection doesn't anticipate.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | MRST | EV | DART | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -278 | -2.3% | +225 | -1.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -245 | -0.6% | +198 | -5.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -275 | -2.1% | +220 | -2.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | -278 | -2.3% | +222 | -2.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -275 | -2.1% | +225 | -1.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 137.5 | -105 | +2.7% | -115 | -7.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 136.5 | -115 | +2.8% | -105 | -7.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 137.5 | -105 | +2.7% | -115 | -7.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | 137.5 | -110 | +1.5% | -110 | -6.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 137.5 | -105 | +2.7% | -115 | -7.0% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Marist 70% to beat Dartmouth (30%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Marist the more likely winner at 70%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Marist a 70% chance of beating Dartmouth, against 30% for Dartmouth. Marist are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Dartmouth project to finish 11.0–14.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 10% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Marist project to finish 15.7–13.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 17% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →