Little Rock
VCU
Win Probability
Little Rock travels to VCU in a matchup where the simulation heavily favors the home side. The Rams face a steep challenge in containing a Rams offense that projects to score in the low-to-mid 80s, with VCU's defense built to execute at a high level. Across eight similar games in AccuScore's history, the favored side has won all eight, underscoring how rarely underdogs escape when the model leans this decisively. For Little Rock to pull off an upset, the Commodores would need to force the kind of offensive drought that rarely materializes in a single game; even a modest performance from VCU's key contributors makes a road win nearly impossible. The combined score has a 47% chance of surpassing the total, suggesting a game decided more by defensive execution than an offensive shootout.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | VCU | EV | LR | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -3200 | -1.8% | +1400 | -0.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -4500 | -2.3% | +1600 | +6.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -3000 | -1.7% | +1250 | -5.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -6000 | -2.5% | +1800 | +12.7% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -3335 | -1.9% | +1150 | -8.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 154.5 | -105 | -9.0% | -115 | +4.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 153.5 | -118 | -8.9% | -104 | +4.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 154.5 | -105 | -9.0% | -115 | +4.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | 155 | -110 | -11.0% | -110 | +6.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 154.5 | -105 | -9.0% | -115 | +4.2% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes VCU 93% to beat Little Rock (7%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes VCU the more likely winner at 93%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives VCU a 93% chance of beating Little Rock, against 7% for Little Rock. VCU are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Little Rock project to finish 12.5–17.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 9% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
VCU project to finish 19.3–9.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 43% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock | 12.5–17.5 | 8% | 9% |
| VCU | 19.3–9.7 | 19% | 43% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →