NCAAB
South Carolina Upstate
East Carolina
Win Probability
South Carolina Upstate travels to East Carolina in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home Pirates. Across eight similar games, the model has gone 8-0, a perfect record worth noting as ECU enters as a substantial favorite. The game hinges on offensive execution: East Carolina projects to reach 80.6 points with relative ease, while South Carolina Upstate sits at 70.1, a gap that reflects a meaningful difference in scoring capacity between the two teams. For the Upstate upset to materialize, the visitors would need to disrupt East Carolina's offensive rhythm and find enough scoring themselves to overcome that projected deficit.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | ECU | EV | UPST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -900 | -5.1% | +600 | +16.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -1100 | -5.9% | +680 | +24.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | -900 | -5.1% | +600 | +16.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -1200 | -6.2% | +700 | +26.4% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -910 | -5.1% | +540 | +11.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 151.5 | -112 | -5.6% | -108 | +1.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 151.5 | -110 | -5.2% | -110 | +0.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | 151.5 | -110 | -5.2% | -110 | +0.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 151.5 | -110 | -5.2% | -110 | +0.7% |
| BetRivers ↗ | 150.5 | -117 | -3.8% | -109 | -1.9% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes East Carolina 81% to beat South Carolina Upstate (19%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes East Carolina the more likely winner at 81%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives East Carolina a 81% chance of beating South Carolina Upstate, against 19% for South Carolina Upstate. East Carolina are at home and favoured on these numbers.
South Carolina Upstate project to finish 12.0–17.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
East Carolina project to finish 12.6–15.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 6% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Carolina Upstate | 12.0–17.0 | 5% | 8% |
| East Carolina | 12.6–15.4 | 3% | 6% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →