NCAAB
Stetson
Clemson
Win Probability
Moneyline
STET
+3000
4.9% win prob
EV +26.0%
theScore Bet
Moneyline
CLEM
-7000
95.1% win prob
EV -1.8%
Fanatics
Stetson travels to face Clemson in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the home side. Clemson's offensive firepower will be central to the outcome; the model projects the Tigers to score over 82 points. For Stetson to pull off an upset, the Hatters would need to significantly limit Clemson's scoring efficiency while generating enough offense themselves—a tall order given the gap in the projection. AccuScore's model has gone 8 for 8 on games with similar win-probability shapes. Stetson would need a complete defensive performance and improved efficiency on their end to have any realistic path to victory.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | CLEM | EV | STET | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -8000 | -1.9% | +2200 | +6.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -10000 | -2.0% | +2400 | +11.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -10000 | -2.0% | +1900 | -1.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | -15000 | -2.1% | +2200 | +6.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -20000 | -2.2% | +3000 | +26.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 143.5 | -115 | -3.2% | -105 | -1.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 144.5 | -110 | -4.4% | -110 | -0.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 144.5 | -105 | -3.3% | -115 | -1.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | 144 | -110 | -3.2% | -110 | -1.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 143.5 | -115 | -3.2% | -105 | -1.3% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Clemson 95% to beat Stetson (5%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Clemson the more likely winner at 95%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Clemson a 95% chance of beating Stetson, against 5% for Stetson. Clemson are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Stetson project to finish 10.4–17.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 12% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Clemson project to finish 18.1–11.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 40% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →