NCAAB
American University
Cincinnati
Win Probability
Cincinnati hosts American University in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the Bearcats. The game hinges on offensive execution: Cincinnati's projected output suggests they will pull away if American University cannot generate consistent scoring, with the visitor's attack projected well below the pace needed to keep pace. On similar games shaped this way, AccuScore's model has gone 8 for 8. For American University to steal this road upset, they would need to force Cincinnati into an uncharacteristic shooting slump while staying efficient themselves—a narrow path given how lopsided the model sees the talent gap.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | CIN | EV | AMER | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -9000 | -1.8% | +2500 | +9.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -20000 | -2.1% | +3500 | +32.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -10000 | -1.8% | +2500 | +9.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -6814 | -1.6% | +2171 | +2.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 150.5 | -105 | -11.2% | -115 | +6.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -9.5% | -110 | +5.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 150.5 | -110 | -12.1% | -110 | +7.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -9.5% | -110 | +5.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 149.5 | -115 | -10.4% | -105 | +6.2% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Cincinnati 95% to beat American University (5%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Cincinnati the more likely winner at 95%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Cincinnati a 95% chance of beating American University, against 5% for American University. Cincinnati are at home and favoured on these numbers.
American University project to finish 15.5–15.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 17% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Cincinnati project to finish 19.0–13.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 40% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| American University | 15.5–15.5 | 16% | 17% |
| Cincinnati | 19.0–13.0 | 6% | 40% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →