NCAAB
Air Force
Wright State
Win Probability
Air Force travels to face Wright State in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. The Raiders project to win by double digits, with the outcome turning largely on whether Air Force can generate enough scoring punch to stay close—the Falcons are projected in the low 70s, well below Wright State's expected output. In games with a win-probability shape similar to this one, AccuScore's model has gone 8 for 8. For Air Force to pull off the upset, it would need to exceed its scoring projection substantially while holding Wright State well below its forecast.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | WRST | EV | AF | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -650 | -1.7% | +470 | -3.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -610 | -1.2% | +440 | -6.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -625 | -1.4% | +450 | -5.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | -600 | -1.1% | +430 | -7.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -750 | -2.5% | +475 | -3.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 162.5 | -112 | -19.0% | -108 | +14.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 162.5 | -110 | -18.7% | -110 | +14.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 163.5 | -105 | -20.0% | -115 | +14.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | 162.5 | -110 | -18.7% | -110 | +14.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 162.5 | -110 | -18.7% | -110 | +14.1% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Wright State 84% to beat Air Force (16%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Wright State the more likely winner at 84%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Wright State a 84% chance of beating Air Force, against 16% for Air Force. Wright State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Air Force project to finish 8.0–23.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Wright State project to finish 17.6–12.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 25% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 8.0–23.0 | <1% | 1% |
| Wright State | 17.6–12.4 | 20% | 25% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →