NCAAB
Youngstown State
St. Bonaventure
Win Probability
Moneyline
YSU
+450
22.4% win prob
EV +11.6%
theScore Bet
Moneyline
SBU
-550
77.6% win prob
EV -4.1%
Hard Rock Bet
Youngstown State travels to face St. Bonaventure in a matchup the model decisively favours for the home side. The simulation hinges on perimeter scoring: St. Bonaventure's offence will need consistent production to pull away, while Youngstown State's ability to manufacture points on the road will determine whether it can stay close. On games with this win-probability shape across different matchups, AccuScore's model has gone 7-1. For the visitors to upset the projection, their depth would need to overcome the home-court advantage and force St. Bonaventure into an uncharacteristically poor shooting night.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | SBU | EV | YSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -600 | -4.7% | +440 | +10.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -610 | -4.8% | +440 | +10.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -600 | -4.7% | +425 | +8.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | -600 | -4.7% | +430 | +9.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -700 | -5.7% | +450 | +11.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 153.5 | -115 | -5.9% | -105 | +1.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 153.5 | -112 | -5.3% | -108 | +0.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | -4.9% | -110 | +0.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | -4.9% | -110 | +0.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 153.5 | -115 | -5.9% | -105 | +1.5% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes St. Bonaventure 78% to beat Youngstown State (22%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes St. Bonaventure the more likely winner at 78%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives St. Bonaventure a 78% chance of beating Youngstown State, against 22% for Youngstown State. St. Bonaventure are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Youngstown State project to finish 14.0–15.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 13% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
St. Bonaventure project to finish 16.6–14.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 19% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Youngstown State | 14.0–15.0 | 10% | 13% |
| St. Bonaventure | 16.6–14.4 | 8% | 19% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →