UNC Asheville
Richmond
Win Probability
UNC Asheville travels to Richmond in a game where the simulation decisively favors the home side. The Spiders' depth will matter here: Richmond's roster projects to outscore the Bulldogs by roughly ten points, with contributions distributed across multiple scorers rather than concentrated in one or two standouts. On games with this win-probability shape, AccuScore's model has gone 7-1 across eight comparable matchups, a track record worth noting. UNC Asheville would need to beat Richmond's balanced scoring attack and hold the pace down—the combined total lands just under market expectation—to pull off the upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | RICH | EV | UNCA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -1100 | -7.0% | +700 | +34.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -1450 | -7.9% | +810 | +46.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | -1400 | -7.8% | +800 | +45.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -1600 | -8.1% | +800 | +45.4% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -1430 | -7.8% | +750 | +40.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 148.5 | -108 | -6.7% | -112 | +2.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 148.5 | -110 | -7.0% | -110 | +2.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | 148.5 | -110 | -7.0% | -110 | +2.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 148.5 | -110 | -7.0% | -110 | +2.5% |
| BetRivers ↗ | 147.5 | -114 | -5.4% | -109 | +0.3% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Richmond 79% to beat UNC Asheville (21%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Richmond the more likely winner at 79%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Richmond a 79% chance of beating UNC Asheville, against 21% for UNC Asheville. Richmond are at home and favoured on these numbers.
UNC Asheville project to finish 13.5–15.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 14% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Richmond project to finish 14.7–16.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 12% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNC Asheville | 13.5–15.5 | 9% | 14% |
| Richmond | 14.7–16.3 | 4% | 12% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →