NCAAB
Ball State
Georgia Southern
Win Probability
Moneyline
BALL
-129
51.7% win prob
EV -4.1%
Polymarket
Moneyline
GASO
+125
48.3% win prob
EV +4.3%
Hard Rock Bet
Ball State travels to face Georgia Southern in a coin-flip matchup where the simulation barely favors the Eagles. The model projects a near-deadlock, with both offences capable of moving the ball — Ball State's offence has a 60% chance of exceeding 77 points, while Georgia Southern's sits at 51% to clear that same mark. Ball State's slight lean hinges entirely on execution in transition; the Eagles will need their defence to dictate pace and force the Eagles into a grind. AccuScore's model went 5-3 on games shaped this way, suggesting modest predictive power in matchups this close. Georgia Southern wins if it can slow Ball State's tempo and keep possessions methodical.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | GASO | EV | BALL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +110 | +0.7% | -130 | -4.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +115 | +1.9% | -138 | -5.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +110 | +0.7% | -135 | -5.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | +110 | +0.7% | -130 | -4.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +110 | +0.7% | -130 | -4.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 158.5 | -110 | -12.5% | -110 | +7.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 158.5 | -110 | -12.5% | -110 | +7.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 158.5 | -105 | -11.6% | -115 | +6.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | 158 | -110 | -11.4% | -110 | +6.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 158.5 | -110 | -12.5% | -110 | +7.9% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 48.3%
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
AccuScore's simulation makes Ball State 52% to beat Georgia Southern (48%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Ball State the more likely winner at 52%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Georgia Southern a 48% chance of beating Ball State, against 52% for Ball State. Georgia Southern are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Ball State project to finish 12.1–15.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Georgia Southern project to finish 14.7–15.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 12% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ball State | 12.1–15.9 | 5% | 8% |
| Georgia Southern | 14.7–15.3 | 8% | 12% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →