Buffalo
Marshall
Win Probability
Buffalo travels to Marshall in a matchup the simulation leans slightly toward the home side to win. The game hinges on total points: AccuScore projects a combined score in the mid-to-high 150s, and whether that materializes will likely decide the outcome. On similar games from the model's history, the favoured side won 63% of the time. For Buffalo to pull off the upset, it would need to either hold Marshall well below its projection or find enough scoring itself to overcome a hostile road environment.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | MRSH | EV | BUF | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -135 | -0.0% | +114 | -4.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -125 | +1.7% | +104 | -6.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -135 | -0.0% | +110 | -5.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | -130 | +0.8% | +110 | -5.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -135 | -0.0% | +115 | -4.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 156.5 | -115 | -2.4% | -105 | -2.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 156.5 | -115 | -2.4% | -105 | -2.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 157.5 | -105 | -2.9% | -115 | -1.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | 157 | -110 | -2.6% | -110 | -1.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 157.5 | -110 | -4.0% | -110 | -0.6% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 57.4%
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Marshall 57% to beat Buffalo (43%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Marshall the more likely winner at 57%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Marshall a 57% chance of beating Buffalo, against 43% for Buffalo. Marshall are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Buffalo project to finish 13.2–15.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 10% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Marshall project to finish 14.3–13.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 13% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →