NCAAB
Rider
Pittsburgh
Win Probability
Rider travels to Pittsburgh for a matchup the simulation strongly favors the home side to win. The Panthers project to dominate the scoreboard, with their offense expected to pull away decisively. Pittsburgh's depth and execution leave little room for the Colonials to compete in this spot. On similar games shaped this way, AccuScore's model went 8 for 8, a perfect record that underscores the gap in class here. Rider would need a shocking offensive explosion and Pittsburgh to fall well short of its ceiling to have any realistic path.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | PITT | EV | RID | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -100000 | -1.3% | +5000 | +16.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -30000 | -1.1% | +5000 | +16.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -10000 | -0.8% | +3300 | -5.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -9962 | -0.8% | +4433 | +8.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 141.5 | -110 | -4.8% | -110 | +0.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 141.5 | -110 | -4.8% | -110 | +0.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 141.5 | -110 | -4.8% | -110 | +0.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | 141.5 | -110 | -4.8% | -110 | +0.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 141.5 | -110 | -4.8% | -110 | +0.2% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Pittsburgh 97% to beat Rider (3%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Pittsburgh the more likely winner at 97%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Pittsburgh a 97% chance of beating Rider, against 3% for Rider. Pittsburgh are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Rider project to finish 9.5–20.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Pittsburgh project to finish 15.2–15.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 17% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rider | 9.5–20.5 | 2% | 2% |
| Pittsburgh | 15.2–15.8 | 3% | 17% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →