NCAAB
Maine
Providence
Win Probability
Maine travels to Providence in a matchup where the simulation heavily favors the home side. AccuScore projects a comfortable margin built on Providence's offensive depth, though the combined scoring sits near the market total's midpoint. The Friars' ability to control pace and limit Maine's perimeter opportunities will likely prove decisive. On games shaped this way historically, AccuScore's model has gone 8 for 8, a record that reflects Providence's structural advantages in this spot. For Maine to pull off an upset, the Black Bears would need to stay within striking distance through the second half and force Providence into an uncharacteristic shooting slump.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | PROV | EV | ME | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -36823 | -1.0% | +346 | -44.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 150.5 | -110 | -4.6% | -110 | +0.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -2.2% | -110 | -2.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | 150.5 | -110 | -4.6% | -110 | +0.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 150.5 | -110 | -4.6% | -110 | +0.0% |
| BetRivers ↗ | 148.5 | -125 | -2.6% | +100 | -2.7% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Providence 98% to beat Maine (2%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Providence the more likely winner at 98%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Providence a 98% chance of beating Maine, against 2% for Maine. Providence are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Maine project to finish 13.0–18.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Providence project to finish 15.6–14.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 25% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maine | 13.0–18.0 | 8% | 8% |
| Providence | 15.6–14.4 | 6% | 25% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →