NCAAB
Lafayette
Butler
Win Probability
Moneyline
LAF
+3000
7.3% win prob
EV +63.1%
theScore Bet
Moneyline
BTLR
-5429
92.7% win prob
EV -2.8%
Polymarket
Lafayette travels to face Butler in a matchup the model favors decisively for the home side. Butler's depth gives it the advantage; across eight similar games, the model has gone 8-0. The deciding factor is whether Lafayette can generate enough perimeter scoring to stay close—the projection assumes a 17-point margin, and closing that gap would require both teams to exceed their typical offensive output. Lafayette will need its ball handlers to impose tempo and force Butler into extended possessions, though the simulation gives the visitors only a 7% path to victory.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | BTLR | EV | LAF | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -6500 | -2.9% | +2000 | +26.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -7000 | -3.0% | +2000 | +26.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -20000 | -3.4% | +3000 | +63.1% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -5429 | -2.8% | +1040 | -8.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 149.5 | -115 | -2.9% | -105 | -1.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -1.9% | -110 | -2.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -1.9% | -110 | -2.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 150.5 | -110 | -4.3% | -110 | -0.3% |
| BetRivers ↗ | 149.5 | -122 | -4.1% | -104 | -1.4% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Butler 93% to beat Lafayette (7%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Butler the more likely winner at 93%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Butler a 93% chance of beating Lafayette, against 7% for Lafayette. Butler are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Lafayette project to finish 12.5–17.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Butler project to finish 15.5–16.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 20% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →