Navy
George Washington
Win Probability
Moneyline
NAVY
+1300
15.4% win prob
EV +57.8%
theScore Bet
Moneyline
GW
-1736
84.6% win prob
EV -5.3%
Polymarket
Navy travels to George Washington in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. The Midshipmen face a steep climb against a George Washington team the model projects to pull away late, with the game turning on whether Navy can generate enough perimeter scoring to stay within striking distance. In games shaped like this one, AccuScore's simulation has gone 8 for 8. For Navy to pull off the upset, their offense would need to exceed projections significantly while holding George Washington's scoring below forecast—a combination that history suggests rarely materializes in spots where the home team carries this decisively favored a lean.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | GW | EV | NAVY | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -2100 | -5.7% | +1100 | +42.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -2500 | -6.0% | +1160 | +47.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | -2000 | -5.6% | +1050 | +38.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -4000 | -6.6% | +1300 | +57.8% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -2000 | -5.6% | +900 | +27.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 149.5 | -108 | -5.8% | -112 | +1.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -6.2% | -110 | +1.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -6.2% | -110 | +1.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -6.2% | -110 | +1.6% |
| BetRivers ↗ | 148.5 | -112 | -3.9% | -114 | -1.8% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes George Washington 85% to beat Navy (15%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes George Washington the more likely winner at 85%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives George Washington a 85% chance of beating Navy, against 15% for Navy. George Washington are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Navy project to finish 19.4–10.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 32% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
George Washington project to finish 17.7–13.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 23% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Navy | 19.4–10.6 | 31% | 32% |
| George Washington | 17.7–13.3 | 11% | 23% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →