NCAAB
Denver
Wisconsin
Win Probability
Moneyline
DEN
+3000
4.2% win prob
EV +15.1%
theScore Bet
Moneyline
WIS
-5165
95.8% win prob
EV -1.2%
Polymarket
Wisconsin hosts Denver in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Carson Johnson projects to have a 49% chance of exceeding 25 points, rebounds and assists, but he will face a Badgers team built around depth: Nolan Winter, Eian Elmer, and Austin Rapp each carry a 47% chance of clearing their respective thresholds. The game turns on whether Denver's scoring can keep pace with Wisconsin's balanced attack. In eight prior games with a similar win-probability shape, AccuScore's favored side went 8-0. Denver would need to break that pattern and contain multiple Wisconsin contributors simultaneously to pull off an upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | WIS | EV | DEN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -8000 | -1.5% | +2200 | -1.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -10000 | -1.6% | +3000 | +15.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -10000 | -1.6% | +2200 | -1.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -20000 | -1.9% | +3000 | +15.1% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -5165 | -1.2% | +1756 | -11.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 159.5 | -112 | -3.1% | -108 | -1.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 159.5 | -110 | -2.7% | -110 | -1.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 159.5 | -110 | -2.7% | -110 | -1.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | 159.5 | -110 | -2.7% | -110 | -1.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 159.5 | -110 | -2.7% | -110 | -1.9% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Wisconsin 96% to beat Denver (4%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Wisconsin the more likely winner at 96%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Wisconsin a 96% chance of beating Denver, against 4% for Denver. Wisconsin are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Denver project to finish 12.8–17.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Wisconsin project to finish 19.6–11.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 56% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →