Southern Indiana
Belmont
Win Probability
Moneyline
USI
+1500
8.8% win prob
EV +20.4%
theScore Bet
Moneyline
BEL
-2105
91.2% win prob
EV -2.2%
Polymarket
Southern Indiana travels to Belmont looking to pull off a significant upset, but the simulation decisively favors the home side. The model projects a 16-point victory for the Bruins, with the game turning on Belmont's ability to control pace and execution—a gap that shows up clearly in the scoring differential. On games shaped like this one, AccuScore's model has gone 8 for 8 in picking the favored team. For Southern Indiana to steal a win, the Screaming Eagles would need to generate enough offensive efficiency to keep pace with Belmont's projected output and limit turnovers in a hostile environment.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | BEL | EV | USI | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -2400 | -2.5% | +1200 | +7.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -3500 | -3.1% | +1280 | +10.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -2500 | -2.6% | +1050 | +0.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -5000 | -3.5% | +1500 | +20.4% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -5000 | -3.5% | +1050 | +0.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 154.5 | -115 | -5.3% | -105 | +1.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 154.5 | -115 | -5.3% | -105 | +1.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 154.5 | -115 | -5.3% | -105 | +1.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | 154.5 | -110 | -4.4% | -110 | -0.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 154.5 | -115 | -5.3% | -105 | +1.0% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Belmont 91% to beat Southern Indiana (9%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Belmont the more likely winner at 91%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Belmont a 91% chance of beating Southern Indiana, against 9% for Southern Indiana. Belmont are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Southern Indiana project to finish 10.5–16.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 6% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Belmont project to finish 17.9–12.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 34% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Indiana | 10.5–16.5 | 6% | 6% |
| Belmont | 17.9–12.1 | 19% | 34% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →