NCAAB
Lipscomb
Southeast Missouri State
Win Probability
Moneyline
LIP
-120
53.1% win prob
EV -1.3%
Hard Rock Bet
Moneyline
SEMO
+135
46.9% win prob
EV +5.1%
theScore Bet
Lipscomb travels to face Southeast Missouri State in a matchup the model leans slightly toward the visitors. The simulation hinges on perimeter scoring: both squads will need their outside weapons firing, with the game likely decided by which team's three-point shooting holds up down the stretch. AccuScore's model has gone 5–3 on games with this win-probability shape across eight comparable matchups. For Southeast Missouri State to pull the upset at home, their defense would need to force enough turnovers to disrupt Lipscomb's offensive rhythm and manufacture second-chance opportunities on the other end.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | SEMO | EV | LIP | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +130 | +3.9% | -155 | -6.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +122 | +2.1% | -146 | -5.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | +126 | +3.0% | -150 | -5.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +135 | +5.1% | -155 | -6.3% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -104 | -4.0% | -122 | -1.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 154.5 | -110 | -12.2% | -110 | +7.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | -9.9% | -110 | +5.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | 154.5 | -110 | -12.2% | -110 | +7.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 154.5 | -110 | -12.2% | -110 | +7.7% |
| BetRivers ↗ | 152.5 | -117 | -8.8% | -109 | +3.3% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 46.9%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Lipscomb 53% to beat Southeast Missouri State (47%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Lipscomb the more likely winner at 53%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Southeast Missouri State a 47% chance of beating Lipscomb, against 53% for Lipscomb. Southeast Missouri State are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Lipscomb project to finish 14.6–15.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 23% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Southeast Missouri State project to finish 13.9–13.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 18% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lipscomb | 14.6–15.4 | 19% | 23% |
| Southeast Missouri State | 13.9–13.1 | 18% | 18% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →