NCAAB
Central Michigan
UL Monroe
Win Probability
Central Michigan travels to face UL Monroe in a matchup the model clearly favors the visiting Chippewas. The simulation hinges on whether UL Monroe can keep pace offensively; AccuScore projects the Warhawks will need to exceed 75 points to have a realistic chance at home. Across eight similar games in the historical record, the favored side won five times. Both teams' offensive execution will determine whether this stays close or opens up in Central Michigan's favor.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | ULM | EV | CMU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +130 | -2.5% | -155 | -1.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +122 | -4.2% | -146 | -0.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +125 | -3.5% | -155 | -1.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | +130 | -2.5% | -155 | -1.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +130 | -2.5% | -150 | -1.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 151.5 | -110 | +2.5% | -110 | -7.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | +0.1% | -110 | -4.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 152.5 | -105 | +1.2% | -115 | -5.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | 151.5 | -110 | +2.5% | -110 | -7.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 151.5 | -105 | +3.7% | -115 | -7.9% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Central Michigan 59% to beat UL Monroe (41%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Central Michigan the more likely winner at 59%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UL Monroe a 41% chance of beating Central Michigan, against 59% for Central Michigan. UL Monroe are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Central Michigan project to finish 11.8–17.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
UL Monroe project to finish 7.9–21.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central Michigan | 11.8–17.2 | 5% | 7% |
| UL Monroe | 7.9–21.1 | 1% | 2% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →