NCAAB
Tennessee Tech
Mississippi State
Win Probability
Tennessee Tech travels to face Mississippi State in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home Bulldogs. The model projects a Mississippi State victory built on offensive execution, with the visiting Golden Eagles needing to limit turnovers and stay competitive on the boards to keep this close. Across eight similarly structured games, AccuScore's pick has gone 8-0, a perfect record that reflects how predictive the win-probability shape is at this extreme. Tennessee Tech's path to the upset runs through containing Mississippi State's bench production and forcing enough three-point misses to keep the pace manageable. For the Golden Eagles to pull off the result, they would need to exceed their projected scoring output substantially while holding the Bulldogs well below their simulation mean.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | MSST | EV | TNTC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -2800 | -3.3% | +1300 | +19.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -4000 | -3.8% | +1400 | +24.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -2500 | -3.1% | +1100 | +9.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -5000 | -4.0% | +1500 | +29.2% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -10000 | -4.5% | +1300 | +19.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 157.5 | -105 | -5.7% | -115 | +1.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 157.5 | -110 | -6.7% | -110 | +2.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 156.5 | -115 | -5.3% | -105 | +1.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | 157 | -110 | -5.5% | -110 | +1.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 157.5 | -105 | -5.7% | -115 | +1.0% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Mississippi State 90% to beat Tennessee Tech (10%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Mississippi State the more likely winner at 90%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Mississippi State a 90% chance of beating Tennessee Tech, against 10% for Tennessee Tech. Mississippi State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Tennessee Tech project to finish 11.7–17.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Mississippi State project to finish 13.6–17.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 15% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Tech | 11.7–17.3 | 5% | 7% |
| Mississippi State | 13.6–17.4 | 1% | 15% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →