NCAAB
Toledo
Arkansas State
Win Probability
Toledo travels to face Arkansas State in a matchup where the simulation clearly favors the home side. The Red Wolves project to pull away in a game decided by tempo and three-point shooting; across eight similar win-probability shapes, AccuScore's model has gone 7-1. Toledo will need to keep pace from deep and force stops in transition to overcome the home-court lean, as the projected margin sits within a possession despite Arkansas State's emphatic advantage in the win probabilities.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | ARST | EV | TOL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -175 | -1.9% | +145 | -2.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -160 | -0.3% | +132 | -5.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -170 | -1.4% | +140 | -3.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | -165 | -0.9% | +140 | -3.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -170 | -1.4% | +145 | -2.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 163.5 | -105 | -7.4% | -115 | +2.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 162.5 | -110 | -5.8% | -110 | +1.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 163.5 | -105 | -7.4% | -115 | +2.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | 162.5 | -110 | -5.8% | -110 | +1.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 163.5 | -105 | -7.4% | -115 | +2.7% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Arkansas State 61% to beat Toledo (39%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Arkansas State the more likely winner at 61%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Arkansas State a 61% chance of beating Toledo, against 39% for Toledo. Arkansas State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Toledo project to finish 16.4–14.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 23% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Arkansas State project to finish 17.0–12.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 22% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | 16.4–14.6 | 15% | 23% |
| Arkansas State | 17.0–12.0 | 16% | 22% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →