NCAAB
Fordham
Kansas
Win Probability
Fordham travels to Kansas in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Across eight similarly shaped contests, the model has gone 8-0, a perfect record worth noting as Kansas projects to control this game throughout. The Jayhawks' depth should prove decisive—their scoring advantage compounds the visitor's difficulty in keeping pace on the road. For Fordham to escape with a result, they would need a scoring surge well above projection, something the data suggests happens rarely in spots like this one.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | KU | EV | FOR | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -8000 | -2.1% | +2200 | +10.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -10000 | -2.2% | +3000 | +32.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -10000 | -2.2% | +2200 | +10.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -7500 | -2.0% | +2000 | +5.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -7804 | -2.0% | +2171 | +10.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 144.5 | -105 | -5.3% | -115 | +0.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 143.5 | -110 | -3.7% | -110 | -0.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 143.5 | -115 | -4.7% | -105 | +0.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | 143.5 | -110 | -3.7% | -110 | -0.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 144.5 | -105 | -5.3% | -115 | +0.7% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Kansas 95% to beat Fordham (5%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Kansas the more likely winner at 95%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Kansas a 95% chance of beating Fordham, against 5% for Fordham. Kansas are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Fordham project to finish 15.6–14.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 14% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Kansas project to finish 17.6–12.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 51% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →