Western Illinois
Valparaiso
Win Probability
Moneyline
WIU
+2000
6.5% win prob
EV +18.3%
theScore Bet
Moneyline
VAL
-2659
93.5% win prob
EV -1.5%
Polymarket
Western Illinois travels to Valparaiso in a game where the simulation decisively favors the home side. The Crusaders' depth gives them a substantial advantage, with the model projecting a comfortable margin built on consistent contributions across the roster. On games shaped like this one, AccuScore's picks have gone 8 for 8 across comparable matchups. For Western Illinois to pull off an upset, it would need to breach Valparaiso's depth and execute at an elite level on both ends of the floor—a tall ask on the road against a team the model trusts decisively.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | VAL | EV | WIU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -3600 | -2.0% | +1500 | +2.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -4000 | -2.1% | +1400 | -1.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -3000 | -1.7% | +1250 | -6.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -7500 | -2.6% | +2000 | +18.3% |
| Hard Rock Bet ↗ | -5000 | -2.3% | +1500 | +2.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 140.5 | -115 | +3.5% | -105 | -8.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 141.5 | -110 | +1.8% | -110 | -6.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 141.5 | -105 | +3.0% | -115 | -7.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | 140.5 | -110 | +4.6% | -110 | -9.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 141.5 | -110 | +1.8% | -110 | -6.4% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Valparaiso 94% to beat Western Illinois (7%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Valparaiso the more likely winner at 94%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Valparaiso a 94% chance of beating Western Illinois, against 7% for Western Illinois. Valparaiso are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Western Illinois project to finish 6.8–20.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Valparaiso project to finish 14.2–14.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 16% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Illinois | 6.8–20.2 | 1% | 1% |
| Valparaiso | 14.2–14.8 | 7% | 16% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →