Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
Texas State
Win Probability
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi travels to face Texas State in a game where the simulation decisively favors the home side. The Bobcats need to control pace and limit Texas State's scoring opportunities; AccuScore projects the visitor around 67 points, well short of what will likely be required. On games with a similar win-probability shape across other matchups, the favored side has won seven of eight. Texas State has the clearer path to victory, but an upset becomes possible if Texas A&M-Corpus Christi can keep the combined output low and steal possessions in transition.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | TXST | EV | AMCC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -440 | -4.3% | +340 | +6.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -610 | -6.6% | +440 | +18.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | -480 | -5.0% | +360 | +8.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -450 | -4.5% | +340 | +6.1% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -480 | -5.0% | +335 | +5.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 142.5 | -110 | -4.9% | -110 | +0.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 142.5 | -110 | -4.9% | -110 | +0.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | 142.5 | -110 | -4.9% | -110 | +0.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 142.5 | -110 | -4.9% | -110 | +0.4% |
| BetRivers ↗ | 144.5 | -106 | -9.6% | -121 | +3.3% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Texas State 75% to beat Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (26%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Texas State the more likely winner at 75%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Texas State a 75% chance of beating Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, against 26% for Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. Texas State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi project to finish 15.4–14.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 20% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Texas State project to finish 13.6–17.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 11% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | 15.4–14.6 | 11% | 20% |
| Texas State | 13.6–17.4 | 4% | 11% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →