NCAAB
Lindenwood
TCU
Win Probability
Lindenwood travels to Fort Worth to face TCU in a game where the simulation decisively favors the home side. AccuScore's model projects a comfortable victory built on TCU's offensive firepower, with the game's outcome hinging on whether Lindenwood can generate enough perimeter scoring to stay within striking distance. In eight prior games with similar win-probability shapes, the favored team won all eight. For the Lions to pull off an upset, they would need to force TCU into an uncharacteristically poor shooting night while dramatically outpacing their projected offensive output.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | TCU | EV | LIN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -20000 | -0.9% | +3500 | -8.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -10000 | -0.7% | +3300 | -10.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -15719 | -0.8% | +2171 | -23.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 154.5 | -115 | -6.8% | -105 | +2.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 154.5 | -112 | -6.3% | -108 | +1.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 155.5 | -105 | -7.6% | -115 | +2.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | 155 | -110 | -7.2% | -110 | +2.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 155.5 | -110 | -8.6% | -110 | +4.0% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes TCU 98% to beat Lindenwood (2%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes TCU the more likely winner at 98%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives TCU a 98% chance of beating Lindenwood, against 2% for Lindenwood. TCU are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Lindenwood project to finish 13.4–13.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 16% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
TCU project to finish 17.8–12.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 37% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lindenwood | 13.4–13.6 | 15% | 16% |
| TCU | 17.8–12.2 | 5% | 37% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →