NCAAB
Southern
SMU
Win Probability
Southern travels to face SMU in a matchup the model strongly favors the home side to win. The simulation projects a decisive outcome built on SMU's offensive advantage: across 50,000 simulations, the Mustangs consistently outpaced Southern's defence. In games with a similar win-probability shape, AccuScore's model has gone 8-0. Southern would need to limit turnovers and generate stops at an elite rate to stay competitive, but the gap in projected output suggests SMU's depth and execution should prove too much.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | SMU | EV | SOU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -10000 | -1.4% | +3000 | +7.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -20000 | -1.6% | +3500 | +16.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -8412 | -1.3% | +2171 | -8.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 158.5 | -112 | -7.6% | -108 | +3.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 157.5 | -110 | -4.8% | -110 | +0.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | 157.5 | -110 | -4.8% | -110 | +0.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 158.5 | -110 | -7.2% | -110 | +2.7% |
| BetRivers ↗ | 155.5 | -113 | -0.7% | -113 | -5.0% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes SMU 96% to beat Southern (4%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes SMU the more likely winner at 96%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives SMU a 96% chance of beating Southern, against 4% for Southern. SMU are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Southern project to finish 12.6–16.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 14% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
SMU project to finish 18.8–13.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 34% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →