NCAAB
Lehigh
Saint Louis
Win Probability
Moneyline
LEH
+3500
4.1% win prob
EV +23.8%
theScore Bet
Moneyline
SLU
-5429
95.9% win prob
EV -1.2%
Polymarket
Saint Louis hosts Lehigh in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. The Mountain Hawks face an uphill climb against a Billikens team that projects to win comfortably. Saint Louis's offensive firepower will be central to the result; the model expects the Billikens to push well past 87 points, and Lehigh's scoring capacity will lag significantly behind. On games with a win-probability shape similar to this one, AccuScore's model has gone 8 for 8. Lehigh would need to mount a perimeter assault and force Saint Louis into early foul trouble to have any realistic path to an upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | SLU | EV | LEH | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -9000 | -1.5% | +2500 | +3.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -50000 | -2.0% | +3500 | +23.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -5429 | -1.2% | +1719 | -12.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 154.5 | -105 | -3.9% | -115 | -0.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | 154 | -110 | -3.6% | -110 | -0.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 154.5 | -105 | -3.9% | -115 | -0.6% |
| BetRivers ↗ | 153.5 | -113 | -3.1% | -113 | -2.7% |
| Hard Rock Bet ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | -2.5% | -110 | -2.1% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Saint Louis 96% to beat Lehigh (4%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Saint Louis the more likely winner at 96%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Saint Louis a 96% chance of beating Lehigh, against 4% for Lehigh. Saint Louis are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Lehigh project to finish 13.6–15.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 11% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Saint Louis project to finish 20.1–9.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 46% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lehigh | 13.6–15.4 | 11% | 11% |
| Saint Louis | 20.1–9.9 | 23% | 46% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →