The Citadel
Loyola Chicago
Win Probability
Moneyline
CIT
+1100
15.2% win prob
EV +41.2%
theScore Bet
Moneyline
LUC
-1274
84.8% win prob
EV -4.3%
Polymarket
The Citadel travels to Loyola Chicago in a matchup where the model decisively favors the home side. In 50,000 simulations, Loyola Chicago won decisively across the projected outcome. On eight past games with similar win-probability shapes across different teams, AccuScore's pick went 8-0. The game turns on three-point shooting: if The Citadel's perimeter offense finds rhythm, it can keep this competitive, but Loyola Chicago's depth should control pace and spacing. For the visitors to pull the upset, their role players would need to match Loyola Chicago's bench production.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | LUC | EV | CIT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -1600 | -4.9% | +900 | +26.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -1700 | -5.1% | +890 | +25.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -1600 | -4.9% | +850 | +22.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | -1600 | -4.9% | +900 | +26.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -2500 | -5.9% | +1100 | +41.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 142.5 | -115 | -3.8% | -105 | -0.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 143.5 | -110 | -5.4% | -110 | +0.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 143.5 | -105 | -4.4% | -115 | -0.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | 143 | -110 | -4.1% | -110 | -0.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 143.5 | -110 | -5.4% | -110 | +0.9% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Loyola Chicago 85% to beat The Citadel (15%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Loyola Chicago the more likely winner at 85%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Loyola Chicago a 85% chance of beating The Citadel, against 15% for The Citadel. Loyola Chicago are at home and favoured on these numbers.
The Citadel project to finish 10.4–18.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 4% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Loyola Chicago project to finish 11.0–18.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 5% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Citadel | 10.4–18.6 | 3% | 4% |
| Loyola Chicago | 11.0–18.0 | 2% | 5% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →