NCAAB
Ohio
South Alabama
Win Probability
Ohio travels to South Alabama in a matchup where the simulation favors the home side. The projected margin is tight: South Alabama projects to 77.2 points while Ohio reaches 74.8, a gap that hinges on whether either offense can establish rhythm in the second half. AccuScore's model has gone 5-3 on games shaped like this one. For Ohio to pull the upset, it would need to force South Alabama into the kind of cold shooting stretch that has derailed similar underdogs; the combined score sits near the market's total, suggesting both teams will need their shots to fall.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | USA | EV | OHIO | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -120 | +3.2% | +100 | -8.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -113 | +4.7% | -106 | -9.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -118 | +3.6% | -102 | -8.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | -115 | +4.2% | -105 | -9.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -120 | +3.2% | +100 | -8.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 155.5 | -108 | -11.6% | -112 | +6.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 153.5 | -115 | -8.4% | -105 | +4.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 155.5 | -110 | -11.9% | -110 | +7.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | 155 | -110 | -10.8% | -110 | +6.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 155.5 | -110 | -11.9% | -110 | +7.4% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 58.0%
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AccuScore's simulation makes South Alabama 58% to beat Ohio (42%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes South Alabama the more likely winner at 58%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives South Alabama a 58% chance of beating Ohio, against 42% for Ohio. South Alabama are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Ohio project to finish 12.8–16.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 9% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
South Alabama project to finish 15.7–13.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 16% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio | 12.8–16.2 | 5% | 9% |
| South Alabama | 15.7–13.3 | 11% | 16% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →