NCAAB
Akron
Louisiana
Win Probability
Akron travels to face Louisiana in a matchup where the simulation clearly favours the visiting Zips. The game hinges on perimeter shooting: if Louisiana's offense can generate consistent three-point looks while Akron's defence tightens up on the wings, the hosts stay close, but the model projects Akron's offensive efficiency will prove decisive. Across eight similar win-probability shapes, AccuScore's picks went 7-1. For Louisiana to pull the upset at home, their guards would need to impose pace and force turnovers early, a task made harder by Akron's projected scoring output.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | UL | EV | AKR | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +200 | -3.5% | -245 | -1.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +188 | -5.4% | -230 | -0.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +190 | -5.0% | -235 | -0.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | +196 | -4.1% | -240 | -1.1% |
| BetRivers ↗ | +200 | -3.5% | -265 | -2.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 149.5 | -105 | -4.1% | -115 | -0.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -5.1% | -110 | +0.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 149.5 | -105 | -4.1% | -115 | -0.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | 149 | -110 | -3.8% | -110 | -0.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 149.5 | -105 | -4.1% | -115 | -0.5% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Akron 69% to beat Louisiana (31%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Akron the more likely winner at 69%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Louisiana a 31% chance of beating Akron, against 69% for Akron. Louisiana are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Akron project to finish 18.3–9.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 37% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Louisiana project to finish 10.8–17.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 5% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →