NCAAB
Kansas City
Creighton
Win Probability
Kansas City travels to Creighton in a matchup the simulation strongly favours the home side to win decisively. The Bluejays' depth gives them command of a game that will likely turn on their ability to dominate the boards and control pace; in eight prior games with this win-probability shape, AccuScore's model went 8–0. For Kansas City to pull off the upset, its offence would need to find rhythm early and sustain it through a full forty minutes against a Creighton team built to grind games down.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | CREI | EV | KC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -20000 | -1.2% | +3500 | +2.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -30000 | -1.3% | +5000 | +24.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -10000 | -1.0% | +2800 | -7.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -6814 | -0.7% | +4433 | +15.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 155.5 | -105 | -9.1% | -115 | +4.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 154.5 | -115 | -8.5% | -105 | +4.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 155.5 | -110 | -10.0% | -110 | +5.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | 155.5 | -110 | -10.0% | -110 | +5.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 155.5 | -105 | -9.1% | -115 | +4.3% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Creighton 97% to beat Kansas City (3%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Creighton the more likely winner at 97%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Creighton a 97% chance of beating Kansas City, against 3% for Kansas City. Creighton are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Kansas City project to finish 7.7–20.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Creighton project to finish 14.5–15.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 23% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City | 7.7–20.3 | 2% | 2% |
| Creighton | 14.5–15.5 | 5% | 23% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →