NCAAB
Alcorn State
Ole Miss
Win Probability
Moneyline
ALCN
1.0% win prob
Moneyline
MISS
99.0% win prob
Alcorn State travels to face Ole Miss in a matchup the model decisively favors for the home side. The simulation has run 50,000 iterations and projects a comfortable margin for the Rebels, who figure to control pace and efficiency over a visiting squad with minimal paths to the upset. On games with this win-probability shape across eight similar matchups, the favored side went 8-0, underscoring how rarely the underdog breaks through. For Alcorn State to threaten, the visitors would need to manufacture offense and limit Ole Miss's scoring opportunities—a difficult task when the model projects the Rebels will score substantially more. The game ultimately turns on whether Alcorn State can stay within range through the second half or if Ole Miss pulls away into a blowout.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | MISS | EV | ALCN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -30.5 | -115 | -20.4% | -105 | +16.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | -31.5 | -110 | -22.5% | -110 | +18.0% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -30 | -110 | -18.1% | -110 | +13.7% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -31.5 | -120 | -23.6% | -105 | +19.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 146.5 | -108 | -0.8% | -112 | -3.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | 146.5 | -110 | -1.2% | -110 | -3.3% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 146.5 | -105 | -0.1% | -115 | -4.3% |
| BetRivers ↗ | 146.5 | -109 | -1.0% | -118 | -4.8% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Ole Miss 99% to beat Alcorn State (1%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Ole Miss the more likely winner at 99%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Ole Miss a 99% chance of beating Alcorn State, against 1% for Alcorn State. Ole Miss are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Alcorn State project to finish 10.6–21.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 5% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Ole Miss project to finish 16.1–13.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 30% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alcorn State | 10.6–21.4 | 5% | 5% |
| Ole Miss | 16.1–13.9 | 4% | 30% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →