NCAAB
Florida A&M
Florida State
Win Probability
Moneyline
FAMU
+3500
4.5% win prob
EV +31.0%
theScore Bet
Moneyline
FSU
-8412
95.5% win prob
EV -1.7%
Polymarket
Florida A&M travels to Tallahassee to face Florida State, a matchup where the simulation favors the home side decisively. The Seminoles' depth gives them the advantage: Florida State is projected to generate scoring from multiple sources, while Florida A&M will need to limit the damage in transition and on the boards. On games with a win-probability shape similar to this one, AccuScore's model has gone 8 for 8, a record that reflects how clearly the better team separated itself. For the Rattlers to pull the upset, they would need to force turnovers relentlessly and keep pace with Florida State's offensive output—a tall task on the road.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | FSU | EV | FAMU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -9000 | -1.7% | +2500 | +8.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -10000 | -1.8% | +3000 | +19.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | -25000 | -2.1% | +2500 | +8.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -50000 | -2.2% | +3500 | +31.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -8412 | -1.7% | +2171 | +1.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 156.5 | -110 | -9.3% | -110 | +4.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 154.5 | -115 | -5.3% | -105 | +1.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | 156.5 | -110 | -9.3% | -110 | +4.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 156.5 | -110 | -9.3% | -110 | +4.8% |
| BetRivers ↗ | 155.5 | -114 | -7.7% | -109 | +2.6% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Florida State 96% to beat Florida A&M (5%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Florida State the more likely winner at 96%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Florida State a 96% chance of beating Florida A&M, against 5% for Florida A&M. Florida State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Florida A&M project to finish 13.4–16.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 11% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Florida State project to finish 17.7–14.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 33% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida A&M | 13.4–16.6 | 11% | 11% |
| Florida State | 17.7–14.3 | 5% | 33% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →