NCAAB
La Salle
Houston
Win Probability
Houston hosts La Salle in a matchup the simulation favors decisively. The Cougars' offensive firepower will be central: Houston's scoring threats need to establish early momentum against a visiting team that will struggle to keep pace. La Salle's path to an upset requires forcing Houston into enough inefficiency that the game stays competitive, but AccuScore's model sees that as highly unlikely. In eight prior matchups with this win-probability shape, the favored side won all eight. For the Ragin' Cajuns to pull off the improbable result, their defense would need a historically dominant performance—something the projections suggest is out of reach.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | HOU | EV | LAS | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM ↗ | -10000 | -0.2% | +3300 | -27.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -10969 | -0.2% | +2925 | -30.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 136.5 | -105 | +1.7% | -115 | -6.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 135.5 | -115 | +2.3% | -105 | -6.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | 135.5 | -110 | +3.4% | -110 | -7.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 136.5 | -110 | +0.6% | -110 | -5.1% |
| BetRivers ↗ | 137.5 | -113 | -2.4% | -110 | -2.7% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Houston 99% to beat La Salle (1%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Houston the more likely winner at 99%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Houston a 99% chance of beating La Salle, against 1% for La Salle. Houston are at home and favoured on these numbers.
La Salle project to finish 11.1–17.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 6% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Houston project to finish 21.9–8.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 79% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →