NCAAB
Utah Tech
New Mexico
Win Probability
Utah Tech travels to face New Mexico in a game where the simulation decisively favors the home side. The Lobos' advantage rests on their ability to control pace and limit Utah Tech's scoring opportunities; AccuScore projects New Mexico to reach 87 points while holding the Utes to 69. On games shaped like this one—where the favorite's win probability sits this high—the model has gone 8 for 8 across its historical record. Utah Tech would need to force a faster tempo and generate significantly higher offensive efficiency than projected to keep this competitive.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | UNM | EV | UTU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -8000 | -2.3% | +2200 | +15.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -10000 | -2.4% | +2500 | +24.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -10000 | -2.4% | +2000 | +9.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -3582 | -1.5% | +1719 | +1.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 158.5 | -115 | -7.3% | -105 | +3.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 158.5 | -110 | -6.4% | -110 | +1.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 159.5 | -105 | -7.6% | -115 | +2.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | 158.5 | -110 | -6.4% | -110 | +1.8% |
| BetRivers ↗ | 157.5 | -115 | -5.0% | -108 | -0.0% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes New Mexico 94% to beat Utah Tech (6%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes New Mexico the more likely winner at 94%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives New Mexico a 94% chance of beating Utah Tech, against 6% for Utah Tech. New Mexico are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Utah Tech project to finish 13.7–15.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 15% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
New Mexico project to finish 20.4–10.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 42% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utah Tech | 13.7–15.3 | 11% | 15% |
| New Mexico | 20.4–10.6 | 29% | 42% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →