Abilene Christian
Colorado
Win Probability
Moneyline
ACU
+1500
9.1% win prob
EV +22.8%
theScore Bet
Moneyline
COLO
-2105
90.9% win prob
EV -2.4%
Polymarket
Abilene Christian travels to face Colorado in a contest where the simulation decisively favors the home side. AccuScore's model projects this matchup will turn on Colorado's ability to control pace and limit Abilene Christian's perimeter scoring. In games with a similar win-probability shape across 8 other matchups, the favored side won all 8. For Abilene Christian to pull off the upset, it would need to generate consistent offensive production and force Colorado into an uncharacteristically poor shooting night from beyond the arc.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | COLO | EV | ACU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -3200 | -3.1% | +1400 | +18.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -4000 | -3.4% | +1400 | +18.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -3000 | -3.0% | +1150 | +6.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -5000 | -3.6% | +1500 | +22.8% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -5000 | -3.6% | +1200 | +9.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 153.5 | -112 | -4.4% | -108 | -0.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | -4.0% | -110 | -0.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 153.5 | -115 | -4.9% | -105 | +0.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | 154 | -110 | -5.1% | -110 | +0.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | -4.0% | -110 | -0.6% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Colorado 91% to beat Abilene Christian (9%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Colorado the more likely winner at 91%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Colorado a 91% chance of beating Abilene Christian, against 9% for Abilene Christian. Colorado are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Abilene Christian project to finish 13.4–14.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 13% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Colorado project to finish 15.0–16.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 21% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abilene Christian | 13.4–14.6 | 11% | 13% |
| Colorado | 15.0–16.0 | 2% | 21% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →