NCAAB
Weber State
Oregon State
Win Probability
Weber State travels to face Oregon State in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the home side. The Beavers' projected offensive execution forms the crux of the game: Oregon State's scoring is modelled to reach the mid-80s, a mark Weber State will struggle to match from the visitor's position. In games with a similar win-probability shape across eight other matchups, AccuScore's model went 8 for 8 on the favoured side. For Weber State to pull off the upset, the Wildcats would need to keep Oregon State's scoring in the low 70s while approaching 80 themselves—a combination the simulation rates as unlikely.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | ORST | EV | WEB | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -16.5 | -120 | -14.5% | -102 | +10.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -17.5 | -110 | -16.2% | -110 | +11.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | -17.5 | -110 | -16.2% | -110 | +11.7% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -16.5 | -118 | -14.3% | -108 | +9.0% |
| Book | ORST | EV | WEB | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -3333 | -5.5% | +1200 | +38.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -2500 | -5.1% | +1050 | +28.2% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -2000 | -4.6% | +900 | +18.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 158.5 | -115 | -9.6% | -105 | +5.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 159.5 | -105 | -10.3% | -115 | +5.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | 159 | -110 | -9.9% | -110 | +5.5% |
| BetRivers ↗ | 159.5 | -109 | -11.0% | -118 | +4.8% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Oregon State 86% to beat Weber State (14%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Oregon State the more likely winner at 86%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Oregon State a 86% chance of beating Weber State, against 14% for Weber State. Oregon State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Weber State project to finish 14.1–15.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 13% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Oregon State project to finish 14.4–16.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 12% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weber State | 14.1–15.9 | 10% | 13% |
| Oregon State | 14.4–16.6 | 5% | 12% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →